Collingwood Market Update – January 2016

This report summarizes the monthly statistics for the Western Region of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR). While the SGBAR trading area also includes the Eastern Region of Southern Georgian Bay due to an amalgamation of the Midland Real Estate Board and the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board in 2014, this report is restricted to the Western Region, formerly known as the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS®.

It appears that the New Year has begun in the same way that 2015 ended, summed up by the comment “where has all the property gone”? As indicated in reports throughout last year, 2015 was marked by a robust market with a healthy sales pace outstripping that of the year previous throughout the entire year, month to month and year over year. Supply, however, was simply unable to keep up, and while sales surged, new listings lagged in every month but one, leading to the inevitable – a remarkably tight market with more buyers chasing fewer properties. As indicated, that general trend appears to have carried over into 2016 with an ongoing shortage of listings. In January 2016, only 249 new listings came onto the market compared to 299 one year earlier, marking a drop of 17%. Even more noteworthy is the fact that the foregoing decline is from a month which itself had registered a significant reduction of listings from the year previous. In other words, January 2015 had more than 31% fewer new listings recorded than January 2014 when 435 properties where logged as coming onto the market. Not surprisingly the total number of active MLS® listings at the end of January 2016 reflects this same trend and reinforces the tight market conditions with a 26% decrease in active listings, specifically 987 compared to 1333 for January 2015.

152 JOZO WEIDER BLVD, THE BLUE MOUNTAINS

Sales, however kept pace and actually slightly surpassed the numbers from last year with 106 sales reported in January, up 3% from the 103 sales reported last year at this time. While this increase in sales is modest compared to most of those recorded throughout last year on a year over year basis, it can probably be explained, at least in part by the fact that there does not appear to be much available to buy. The figures may in fact have been quite different had there been more inventory. Total dollar volume sales were up marginally by 1% year over year.

7326 15/16 NOTTAWASAGA SIDE RD, CLEARVIEW

Generally speaking, sales occurred across a range of price points with the greatest pockets of activity being focused in the $250,000-499,999 range where a total of 52 properties were recorded as changing hands compared to 39 last January, an increase of 33.6%, and again in the $700,000-899,999 range where 5 properties changed hands compared to 1 at the same time last year. The higher end is somewhat split with no activity at all in the $900,000-1,499,999 range compared to 3 last year, but 2 sales above $1,500,000 (both being custom built homes located in the town of The Blue Mountains), matching last year’s unit sales performance in this price category.

111 CLEAR WATER CRT, THE BLUE MOUNTAINS

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association’s report at the end of December 2015, interest rates are not expected to begin rising any time soon, and later than previously expected. In fact the forecast is that they will remain on hold until late in 2016 or beyond. Consequently, historically low interest rates should continue to support sales and prices throughout the rest of the year. Despite ongoing volatility in the equity and commodity markets (particularly in relation to oil prices), economic forces point to a countervailing strengthening in the central region economies of Canada fuelled by the improving recovery and job picture south of the border, though this would appear to be far from hiccup free.

All in all, and for all the reasons stated, this is an excellent time to sell if you are considering a larger home, downsizing or a lifestyle change. Moreover, as it is becoming increasingly expensive for many Buyers to purchase in urban markets, many families and empty nesters are moving to the Southern Georgian Bay area where they are able to purchase more affordable homes in all price categories without sacrificing quality of life.