The performance of the Georgian Triangle real estate market continues to impress, both on a year over year basis as well as in relation to neighbouring and related property markets. May’s statistics released by the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® (“GTAR”) reveal that the remarkably and comparatively strong pace of sales in the area so far this year shows no indication of letting up. As real estate markets across the region and nationally appear to be showing increasing signs of recovery and stabilization, buyer demand and property sales in the Georgian Triangle are well ahead of the game having avoided much of the downturn experienced in other markets.
In fact GTAR recorded 216 properties sold in May which is the highest number of sales in the area for the month of May since 2007 when 242 properties were sold. May’s unit sales performance is 7% ahead of last year when 202 properties changed hands, and brings year to date numbers to 836 which is 3% more than the 810 properties which had sold last year by this time. As indicated these figures are all the more remarkable given the broader context of economic slowdown and the much discussed and commented upon softening of the real estate market. Significantly, the increase in total dollar volume sold is even more impressive with this month’s figures besting those of last May by a whopping 20%, contributing to a 5% annual gain for total dollar volume sales year to date. Not surprisingly, much of the surge in activity in the area occurred in higher end properties with increases experienced in every price range but one from $300,000 and up. This trend suggests increased economic and consumer confidence as well as a generally more bullish buyer in the Georgian Triangle.
Listings, however, are down 5% annually both for the month of May and on a year to date basis. Only 693 new listings came onto the market last month compared to 730 last May, and 701 for the same month the year before that. Tighter supply with only 2961 new listings so far this year compared to 3113 last year at this time means inventory is down as well, with GTAR recording 2402 active listings in the MLS® system at the time of its report compared to 2590 one year ago.
A reduction in supply and a surge in demand usually mean one thing: more competition for property pushing prices up, and GTAR’s statistics appear to support this. The average residential sale price year to date in the Georgian Triangle is $333,849, 7.7% higher than last year at this time when it was calculated to be $310,119. The effect of the tightening market is even more evident when the average sale price for single family residential properties for the month of May is compared to last year. This past month the average sale price for this category of property in the area came in at $341,434 compared to $289,647 in May 2012, a spike of almost 18%. Activity measured over a longer period of time and spread over a larger number and wider variety of transactions, however, tends to be a more accurate reflection of price trends, softening the effects of arbitrary or fortuitous concentrations in activity or other market anomalies. Calculated over a twelve month span compared year over year, price appreciation is a more modest 4% with this May’s average sales price for the previous twelve month period for single family residential properties coming in at $330,886 compared to $317,502 one year ago.
These numbers and this report reflect the genuine and stable demand for Georgian Triangle properties, and the ongoing attractiveness and perception of value of real estate investment opportunities in the area. If current trends continue, however, pressure on inventory could push prices higher, testing affordability somewhat, particularly if financing conditions and costs become more onerous and costly.
Prepared by: Richard Stewart, VP and Legal Counsel Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage
