Collingwood Real Estate Market Update – April 2014

The numbers released by the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) for the Georgian Triangle real estate market for the month of April reveal several interesting trends which, at least on their face, are not entirely consistent. The first is that the market has not entirely recovered from the brutal winter that we have just endured, resulting in a potential lag to the spring selling season which often experiences a surge of activity at this time of year accompanying the thaw. As discussed in earlier reports, the area has been plagued by a shortage of inventory which is only just starting to correct itself. That, mixed with the delayed spring, has contributed to fewer properties changing hands. The interesting twist to this scenario is that it does not appear to have affected the higher end market which, potentially due to increasingly positive economic reports, is actually churning out a sterling performance, significantly outperforming the rest of the market and counter balancing the reduction in overall unit sales.

While consistent with sales trends established so far this year, April’s numbers continue to trail those from last year, however, the trajectory appears to be in a positive direction with the negative year over year differential diminishing. More specifically, 196 properties were sold in April compared to 211 in the same month last year, marking a 7% decrease in unit sales. Year to date figures remain 11% behind last year with a total of 549 properties changing hands compared to 617 last year by this time. As indicated, however, higher end sales are more robust with the declines being, for the most part, reserved to properties priced below $350,000. In fact sales increased in all price categories above that threshold with the single exception of those in the $700-799,999 in which 3 properties sold as compared to 4 in April, 2013. As a result, despite the fact that unit sales were down by 7% this April, total dollar volume was actually up by 7% year over year, though year to date numbers still trailed by 2%.

As indicated, a scarcity of listings appears to have had a depressive effect upon sales, but this may be resolving itself and pointing to an improvement in conditions for the remainder of the quarter. New listings increased somewhat over last year with 720 properties coming onto the market compared to 706 last April, a 2% rise. Year to date listings, however, remain 8% behind last year with only 2085 new listings so far as compared to 2267 in 2013. Inventory therefore continues to be tight, with SGBAR reporting 2133 active listings at the time it published its figures, almost 6% fewer than last year when the Board reported 2226 active listings at this time. That said, this number is still a significant improvement over March when month end figures for active listings dipped below 1900.

Prices continue to rise, with the year to date average residential sale price coming in at $357,662, a 7.7% increase over last year’s average price at this time of $332,046. The upward trajectory in prices appears to be getting steeper with year over year average prices for the month of April coming in a full 10% ahead of last year for residential single family properties ($350,705 compared to $318,817). This will be something to watch, however, spread over a twelve month period, the year over year increase is still less than 5%, ($340,173 compared to $325,109).

Now that spring appears to be finally upon us, the hope is that choice will improve with more properties coming onto the market. As mentioned, most economic indicators continue to be positive, and bolstered by extremely competitive lending conditions and ongoing affordability in the region despite recent price increases, the fundamental ingredients appear to be in place for a solid performance by the Georgian Triangle real estate market moving into the next quarter and as the season heats up.