Toronto Real Estate Market Update – August 2014

Metaphorically speaking the Toronto residential resale market took a bit of breather in August. The numbers weren’t bad, but they were not as robust on a year-over-year comparison. Throughout 2014 the monthly positive variances compared to the same month last year have been strong, often approaching or exceeding double digits. This August the variance compared to August 2013 was only 2.8 percent, the lowest positive variance we have seen this year. In absolute numbers, August saw 7,600 residential resales. That compares to 7,391 a year ago.

It is impossible to draw market conclusions based on only one month’s data. It could be that August represented the last vacation month of this year, and both buyers and sellers took a holiday from the frenetic market that has been the norm in 2014. We await September’s results eagerly to determine if there has been any kind of shfit in the Toronto area market place. It must not be forgotten that the tight availability of inventory, other than condominium apartments, has also played a major role in shaping Toronto’s resale market.

Notwithstanding a slowdown in sales, comparatively speaking, average prices remained strong. August’s average sale price came in at $546,303, 8.9 percent higher than the $501,677 achieved in 2013. On a year-to-date basis Toronto’s average sale price is now $562,504. In 2013 the average sale price for the year came in at $522,983. In basic terms, the average house in the Greater Toronto Area is about $40,000 more expensive this year than last.

As has been reported throughout this year the most expensive trading area remains Toronto’s central core. In August the average sale price for a detached house in central Toronto was $1,505,877. These properties also sold very quickly, averaging only 28 days on the market. On average they sold for 98 percent of their asking price.

On the whole the market was still very rapid. For the entire Greater Toronto Area all properties, regardless of type, sold in only 27 days. Last year it took 29 days. It must be remembered that by historical standards these statistics indicate that sales are taking place at the speed of light.

The most in-demand neighbourhoods continue to be found in Toronto’s eastern districts. Detached home sales in the eastern districts all took place in just 17 days, with sales in the popular Riverdale and Leslieville areas taking place in a remarkable 11 days. Semi-detached home sales were even faster. All sales of semi-detached homes occurred in an eye-popping 12 days, and for a sale price that was 103 percent of the list price.

As mentioned earlier, inventory has shaped Toronto’s recent resale market. Lack of product, particularly in sought-after neighbourhoods, has been the primary reason that prices have increased so dramatically. New inventory in August will not change that problem. In August 11,733 new properties were listed for sale in the greater Toronto area. This compares with 12,103 last year, a 3.1 percent decline. The result is that beginning in September there will be 17,882 properties available for buyers to purchase, almost 5 percent less than last year at this time. Currently the greater Toronto area has only 2.3 months of inventory. The City of Toronto has 2.4 months. A market place requires almost 4 months of inventory to be regarded as balanced.

Condominium apartment sales continue to account for most of the reported sales in the City of Toronto. There were 2,760 sales reported for the City of Toronto in August. Of those 2,760 sales, 1,344 were condominium apartments. There is little doubt that Toronto is becoming a City of impressive intensification, with more apartments on the way. During one week in August alone Toronto City Council approved the construction of 7,000 units. It is estimated that over the next few years there will be a further 70,000 condominium apartments in the City of Toronto. The majority of them have already been sold. Although not at the same pace as freehold, condominium apartment average sale prices continue to rise. In August the average sale price rose to $370,899, 4.1 percent higher than for the same period last year.

High end property sales continue to remain strong. In August 518 properties having a sale price in excess of $ 1 Million were reported sold, and 77 with a sale price that exceeded $ 2 Million. Interestingly 5 of those $ 2 Million plus sales were condominium apartments.

Going forward September should return to the robust pace of sales that we witnessed earlier in the year. Nothing has changed that would influence the market otherwise. Mortgage interest rates continue to remain historically low, inventory levels are also historically low, and aside from August’s breather, which may be overstating it, demand hasn’t appeared to abate. It will be interesting to see if inventory levels pick up in September and the following fall months. Higher inventory levels will moderate price increases while giving buyers some choice and time to decide – perhaps even more than 30 days.

Toronto Real Estate Market Update – July 2014

July’s resale market performance was one of the strongest on record for the greater Toronto area, even though it was the third monthly drop in reported sales. In May 11,034 sales were reported, 10,158 in June and July 9,198. The monthly decline is consistent with seasonal patterns. The strongest month is usually May, with sales dropping during the summer months as both buyers and sellers focus on vacations and enjoying our limited, but warmer weather. A further drop in sales in August is also a part of the typical selling pattern.
Having said that the 9,198 residential resales achieved in July now has the greater Toronto market on track to post the strongest year in the history of statics keeping by the Toronto Real Estate Board. In 2007, the year before the recession which started in the fall of 2008, 93,193 properties were reported sold. On no occasion have sales ever topped 90,000 except for 2007. The second best year on record is 2011 with 89,096 residential properties reported sold. To date 57,910 properties have been reported sold in 2014. At this pace the year should achieve 94,000 to 94,500 sales making 2014 the best year on record.
Strong prices invariably follow strong sales markets. In July the average sale price came in at $550,700, 7.5 percent higher than the $512,286 recorded in 2013. The highest monthly sale price on record was achieved in May of this year. It came in at $585,037. It is not uncommon for the average sale price to decline in June and July. Expect the average sale price to come in at approximately $550,000 in August, before jumping to $ 575,000 or more in September. It is unlikely that the record average sale price of $585,037 will be exceeded during the remainder of this year.
In July all properties sold (on average) in 24 days. Although slower than June’s  pace at 21 days, 24 days is exceptionally fast for July. For example last July it took 28 days for all properties to sell. In some trading areas days on the market were even faster. The east end neighborhoods close to the central core of the city remain frenzied. In neighborhoods like Riverdale, Leslieville, and the Beach the pace of sales taking place was on average a little over 13 days. As has been reported before, condominium apartment sales are not as quick as sales of detached and semi-detached properties.
Oakville continues to be the most expensive area to live in the greater Toronto area. The average sale price for all properties sold in Oakville in July was $771,535. In the City of Toronto central properties (excluding condominium apartments) were the most expensive for buyers to purchase. Detached homes sold, on average for $ 1,360,816. Semi-detached homes sold for $751,287. Not only did they sell for these strong prices, but sold quickly, in only 21 and 14 days respectively. All semi-detached homes in the central districts sold for 103 percent of the initial asking price.
Condominium apartment sales in the City of Toronto are continuing to accelerate. In July condominium apartment sales were up 13.4 percent compared to the same month last year. In June sales were up 21.4 percent compared to June 2013. The 13.4 percent increase in July was the largest of any housing type. Second were townhouse sales which increased by 8.3 percent.
With average sale prices continuing to rise, condominium apartments may be the last refuge for some buyers, especially first time buyers. The average sale price for condominium apartments in July was $ 379,002, up 4.7 percent over July 2013. Compared to the average sale price for all other properties ($550,700), condominium apartment prices are approximately 45 percent less expensive. If interest rates were to rise, condominium apartments will become even more attractive.
Low inventory levels continue to be responsible, at least in part, for the strong sales achieved this year. In July 15,187 new properties came to market. Although this number was 8.2 percent greater than new listing that were placed on the market in July 2013, at the beginning of August there were still fewer available properties for buyers to purchase than last year. Last year there were 20,514 properties available for sale. This year there are only 19,549, 4.7 percent fewer. Until the number of new listings coming to market outpaces sales over a period of months, sales will continue at their  brisk pace and average sale prices will continue to rise by about 6 to 8 percent higher than the same month last year. Fortunately historically low interest rates are continuing to keep home ownership within the grasp of most buyers. A  family with gross family income of just over $ 80,000 and a modest down payment still qualifies to purchase an average priced condominium apartment in the City of Toronto.
Of the 9,198 reported sales for July only 3,315 were in the City of Toronto. The other 5,883 sales representing 64 percent of all property sales were in the 905 region. It may be time and descriptively more accurate for the Toronto Real Estate Board to change its name to the Greater Toronto Real Estate Board.

Toronto Real Estate Market Update – June 2014

June’s market performance was not as strong as May’s (11,049), but with 10,180 residential properties reports sold it was much stronger than June 2013. Last year only 8,821 properties were reported sold. This June the 10,180 properties sold by Toronto and surrounding area REALTORS® exceeded last year’s performance by 15.4 percent. June’s results represent the second strongest month this year to date.

With strong numbers in reported sales, the average sale price for properties sold in the greater Toronto area continued to be well above last year’s average sale price, although not as strong as the record setting $585,454 monthly average sale price for May. Generally, monthly average sale price declines in June, July, and August. This year was no exception. The average sale price came in at $568,953, lower than May’s by almost $20,000, but almost 7 percent higher than the $529,614 average sale price achieved in June of 2013.

The pace of sales remained strong in June. All properties, on average sold in 21 days, only one day slower than results in May, and 2 days, or 8.3 percent, faster than sales in June 2013. As was the case in May, all reported properties sold (on average) sold for at least their asking price. In the City of Toronto all properties sold (on average) for 101 percent of their asking price. This number was substantially higher in the case of detached and semi-detached properties: Condominium apartment sales were neither as fast, nor at a number approaching their asking price, yet frothy nonetheless.

It was not surprising that the number of high-end properties reported sold declined dramatically from May (properties having a sale price of $ 1 Million or more). In May 946 properties were reported sold in this category. This was an all-time high. In June sales in this category slipped to 775, a decline of 18 percent. As the summer months arrive it is common to see sales at this price point decline as buyers and sellers focus on holidays, the end of school terms, and recreational properties.

The most expensive area to live in the greater Toronto area was Oakville. The average sale price of all properties sold there was $ 808,944. The average price in Toronto’s central districts came in at $ 726,072, but included 1,011 condominium apartment sales which dramatically reduced the average sale price. Detached homes in the central districts averaged $1,448,267. The average price of a detached home in Oakville in June was only $940,847.

The average price of semi-detached homes in Toronto ranged from a high of $839,786 in the central districts to a low of $559,905 in Toronto’s western trading areas. A buyer had to move quickly to find and buy a semi-detached house in Toronto. On average all semi-detached houses sold in an eye-popping 11 days, and even faster in Toronto’s popular eastern districts, particularly neighbourhoods like Riverdale, Leslieville, and the Beach.

As has been discussed in previous reports, condominium apartment sales, though strong, are not as frothy as detached and semi-detached sales. In the City of Toronto 1,578 condominium apartment sales were recorded in June. This represents a 21.4 percent increase compared to sales for the same period last year. Average sale prices also increased as compared to last year. The average sale price for a Toronto condominium apartment came in at $390,569, an increase of 6.3 percent compared to last year’s average sale price. Sales of Condominium apartments were slower than freehold sales (averaging 30 days with sale prices only 98 percent of asking price).

To date 48,758 properties have been reported sold in the greater Toronto area. At this pace sales for 2014 could come in as high as 95,000 residential properties. This would break the record of 93,193 properties reported sold in 2007. With no indication of a mortgage interest rate hike during the remainder of 2014, a new record for residential sales in the greater Toronto area has a strong possibility of being achieved.

Toronto Real Estate Market Update – May 2014

The pace of Toronto’s residential resales accelerated in May. More sales were reported in May than in any month this year and last year. The highest number of sales reported in 2013 was 9,946 in May of that year. This May 11,079 properties were reported sold. This represents an 11.4 percent increase compared to the 9,946 properties that were reported sold in May 2013. The 11,079 sales was a record, the highest number of sales ever reported for the month of May for the greater Toronto area.

It is not surprising given the market’s performance in May, that in addition to record sales volumes, the monthly average sale price also hit a new record. The average sale price for all properties sold in the greater Toronto area came in at $583,204, the highest average monthly sale price on record, surpassing the previous high of $578,118 achieved only last month. May’s average sale price was 8.3 percent higher than the $540,544 average sale price the greater Toronto resale market delivered last May.

Not only did both sale prices and volumes produce records in May but these records were achieved in record time. The average days on market was only 21 days. Last year it was 23. In many trading areas the pace of sales was even faster. For example in Toronto’s eastern districts, all reported sales took place in only 15 days, a remarkable pace. Not only did all properties sell at a record pace, but all reported sales achieved sale prices that equaled or were greater than the list price. In the City of Toronto all properties sold for 101 percent of their asking price. In the eastern trading areas they sold for 103 percent of their asking price.

The market was also strong at the higher end, properties having an average sale price of $ 1 Million or more. In that category 946 properties were reported sold in May. This represented a 34 percent increase compared to the 702 sales that occurred in this category in May last year. It is interesting to note that 171 properties were reported sold having an average sale price exceeding $ 2 Million or more, a 43 percent increase compared to the 120 that sold last year. A cynical analysis would hold that with average sale prices increasing at the pace they have, what was an “average” house only a few years ago is now classified as a high end sale.

The most expensive place to live is in Toronto’s central districts. The cost of a detached home in central Toronto is now $1,441,785. A semi-detached home is selling for $ 901,659. Prices are no where near as high in the 905 region. The average price of a detached home in the 905 region is only $648,439, less than half of what it would cost to be in a “similar” home in Toronto’s central districts. A semi-detached home can be purchased in the 905 region for $443,644… $458,000 less than buying a semi-detached home in Toronto’s central districts.

Not all of the City of Toronto is as pricey as the central districts. The average price of a detached home in Toronto’s western districts came at $762,528, and a similar property can be found in the eastern districts for $631,594. Semi-detached properties, as expected, sold for less on average. In the western districts the average sale price in May was $553,912 and $ 637,347 in the eastern districts. Interestingly and no doubt due to short supply and the variety of housing quality, there is almost no difference in the average sale price between detached and semi-detached properties in Toronto’s eastern districts.

Toronto’s overall average sale price would have been higher if not for condominium apartment sales. This sector of the market, though robust, is simply not selling at the same pace as detached and semi-detached sales in the City of Toronto. In May 1,565 condominium apartments were reported sold in the City of Toronto. Including the 905 region there were 2,234 sales in total, or just over 20 percent of the entire market place. The average sale price for condominium apartment sales in May was $401,809 (also a record). Unlike other housing forms it took 29 days for all sales to take place and for average sale prices that were only 98 percent of the asking price. The difference between condominium apartment sales and freehold in the City of Toronto is inventory. In May there were 5,133 active condominium apartments available for sale. The total number of properties available for sale, including condominium apartments, was only 8,310. In other words condominium apartments available for sale represented more than 60 percent of all available properties for the entire City of Toronto.

Generally inventory levels remain low. At the end of May there were only 18,931 properties available in the entire greater Toronto area. This is 1 percent less than the 19,080 properties available for sale at this time last year.

Going forward we should anticipate more months like May. The market is strong for a variety of reasons, but predominately because of low mortgage interest rates. As this report was being prepared most lending institutions were offering 5 year fixed rates less than 3 percent. There is no likelihood that rates will be increasing in 2014. As a result, the market is on pace to deliver more than 90,000 property sales in 2014. This would make 2014 the second best year on record for property sales, surpassed only by the 93,193 reported sales achieved in 2007.

Muskoka Real Estate Market Update – Spring 2014

For the second year in a row the recreational market has been negatively impacted by weather conditions. Winter has been long and hard, not only making access to cottage properties almost impossible, but creating an atmosphere not condusive to buying a recreational property. Cottages are associated with warm, sunny days, welcoming lakes, and motor and sail boats on the horizon. With snow drifts often taller than cottages, and frigid temperatures, those summer visions evaporated. There may not have been the high water issues that we experienced last year, but conditions were sufficiently challenging to keep sellers from considering listing their properties for sale.

The decline in inventory in the first four months of 2014 is quite striking, a pattern that might be a reflection of broader market trends. During the first third of the year the Muskoka Haliburton Association of Realtors reported processing 3,097 properties for sale. This compared to 3,235 properties for sale during the same period in 2013 and 3,664 in 2012, declines of 4.3 and 15 percent respectively. This pattern repeated for recreational properties.

In the Haliburton region inventory of recreational properties has declined from 295 available properties in 2012, to 236 in 2013 and down to only 173 this year. These declines amount to 26 percent since 2013 and 41 percent since 2012. The declines on Lake of Bays are similar but not as dramatic. There were 109 recreational properties available for sale in 2012, 100 in 2013, and 92 this year, declines of 8.2 percent and 15.6 percent. The situation on the Muskoka Lakes, Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph, and Lake Muskoka is not dissimilar. There were 243 active available listing of recreational properties in 2012, 232 last year and only 200 this year, declines of 4.5 and 17.7 percent. The Association reported only 760 recreational properties for all Association trading districts combined, down from 1,025 in 2012 and 867 last year. The decline from 2012 is more than 25 percent.

Anecdotally these declines can be explained by the severe weather conditions experienced in 2013 and this year. But this explanation sheds no light on why inventory levels have decreased so dramatically from last year, when weather conditions were equally as inhospitable as they were during the first four months of this year. It may be too early to tell, but demographics may be playing a role in these statistics. As the population ages and becomes more settled there may be fewer potential sellers. It will be interesting to see how this data unfolds during the remainder of the year.

Sold recreational properties have also declined since 2012. Weather conditions have clearly had an impact on the number of properties sold. In the Haliburton area sales have declined from 35 to 28 in 2012 and 2013 to 25 in the first four months of this year. On Lake of Bays from 20 to 15 to 10. The only recreational trading district to reverse this trend is the Muskoka Lakes. In 2012 there were 25 reported sales. Last year reported sales dropped to 18, but this year, notwithstanding the weather conditions, sales have increased to 23, an increase of 27 percent. It is not surprising that with fewer properties available for sale, and inhospitable weather conditions, that sales have declined.

Because of the divergent nature of cottage properties, prices are affected by such features as location (a particular lake), exposure, elevation, water depths and boat traffic. As a result determining average sale price trends becomes more challenging than in an urban environment where numerous sales of comparable properties allow for a fairly accurate reflection of current market values. Moreover sales take place at a much more rapid pace. For example in the Toronto housing market, in April average days on a market for all properties sold were only 20 days. A review of sales that took place in March as reported by the Association indicated that median prices have declined by approximately 8 percent compared to March 2013. As I have indicated in previous reports, a market analysis of the first four months of recreation property sales is not productive since the market is normally dormant during this period. However what this early data indicates is that caution should be exercised in pricing. Sellers must be mindful that the recreational market is not the robust Toronto resale market, where multiple bids on properties are common. Recreational properties will sell, and they will do so quickly, if priced realistically.

Toronto Real Estate Market Update – April 2014

The Toronto residential resale market continued a string of strong monthly performances in April, a trend that defines the spring market: low inventories, strong sales and rising average sale prices. Mortgage interest rates remain king. Historically low with no likelihood of an increase for the remainder of this year. As this market update was being prepared Laurentian Bank was offering a three year rate of just under 2 per cent, the lowest mortgage rate ever offered in Canadian history.

In April 9,706 residential resale properties were purchased, many by buyers eager to take advantage of the exceptional low rates. This compares with 9,535 sold last year, an increase of 1.8 per cent. The number of properties sold would have been much higher had there been more properties available for buyers to purchase. Most of the sales were in Toronto’s 905 region. In fact 60 per cent of all sales were in the 905 region, with only 3,544 in the actual City of Toronto. There are two obvious reasons for this trend. Property values are less in the 905 region, and buyers only pay one land transfer tax. With the average sale price steadily rising, the additional land transfer tax charged by the City of Toronto adds many thousands of dollars to the purchase of a home. A misguided tax that should be reconsidered.

In April the average sale price for all residential properties sold in the greater Toronto area came in at $577,898, the highest average monthly sale price ever recorded. In the City of Toronto the average sale price was more than 10 per cent higher at $641,666.00. Average sale prices for detached and semi-detached properties in Toronto also reached record levels. The average sale price for detached homes increased by 13.2 percent in April (as compared to last year) and the average price of semi-detached homes sky rocketed by 18 percent. Detached homes in Toronto now sell for $965,670 and semi-detached homes sell for $702,332. The most expensive neighborhoods for buying a home are in Toronto’s central district. The average price of a detached home in Toronto’s central districts comes in at an eye-popping $1,506,782. Semi-detached properties were not far behind at $942,267.

April’s average sale prices not only produced record numbers but they did so in record breaking speed. All properties in Toronto and the 905 region sold in only 20 days on average. Last year it took 23 days for all properties to sell. Within various neighborhoods the speed of sales was even faster. For example, in Toronto’s eastern region all detached homes sold in a remarkable 10 days. Not only were sales fast, but all on average sold for 104 per cent of their asking price. Although not as quickly, but still remarkable, all detached homes in the central district sold in 17 days, and for 100 per cent of their list price. It must be reiterated that the average sale price of these homes was $1,506,782.

Condominium apartments remain the most accessible housing type for Toronto buyers. In the City of Toronto alone 1,505 condominium apartments were sold in April, 3.2 percent more than last April. Prices, however, did not reflect what is occurring with detached and semi-detached housing sales. The average price of condominium apartments rose moderately by 1.8 percent to $384,758, still an affordable housing alternative, and probably the only choice available to first time buyers. More than 63 percent of all condominium apartment sales took place in Toronto’s central neighborhoods, predominately downtown.

April saw a considerable spike in high end property sales, properties having a sale price in excess of $1 Million. These amounted to more than 8 percent of the total sales for the month of April. 828 sales were reported in this category. Last year there were only 606, a 36 percent increase. More surprisingly were the number of properties sold achieving a sale price of more than $2 Million. 135 of these properties traded hands in April. Last April only 98 properties in this price range found new buyers, a year-over-year increase of almost 38 percent.

One of the factors driving this robust market is inventory levels. The greater Toronto area reported only 2.5 months of inventory. Some trading areas were in even greater need of new listings. Toronto’s eastern, and still less expensive districts, reported only 1.7 months of inventory. The number of new listings coming to market is not encouraging.

In April 17,351 new properties came to market, 4.5 percent less than in April 2013 (18,160). As we enter May, there are only 19,118 properties available for buyers to consider as compared to 20,866 last year at this time, 8.4 percent less choice. This is a difficult market for buyers. Limited choice, and competition for what is available. There is nothing that points to a change to this environment anytime soon.

Toronto Real Estate Market Update – March 2014

There were few surprises in the residential resale data that emerged for March sales in the greater Toronto area. The trend continues. Low inventories of available property’s are driving sales and average sale prices, fueled by historically low mortgage interest rates. Rates might even get lower before they start to rise. At the end of March the Bank of Montreal made available a five year mortgage with an interest rate of only at 2.99 percent. Since mortgage interest returns are the banks’ primary source of revenue, increasing competition amongst banks, and no doubt lower rates over the short term, can be anticipated. This is no doubt good news for Sellers who find themselves with multiple bidders for their properties, all hoping to purchase a property before mortgage interest rates begin to rise.

In March 8,081 residential properties traded hands, an increase of more than 7 percent compared to 7,537 sales reported in March 2013. The bulk of these sales took place in the 905 region. Of the 8,081 reported sales, 5,103 took place in Halton, Peel, York, Durham, Dufferin and Simcoe County, This is not surprising considering that consumers have more choice in the 905 region, and prices remain lower than comparable properties, if you can find them, in the City of Toronto. Although the gap is declining, the average price for a detached house is $254,000 less in the 905 region –and the buyer pays only one land transfer tax- than in the city of Toronto. Semi-detached homes are $222,000 less expensive.

As has been reiterated in many of the last Market Reports, inventories remain a problem. At the end of March there were only 16,543 available properties in the greater Toronto area for buyers to choose, 10 percent fewer than the 18,384 available at the end of March 2013. A positive turn in March was the number of new listings that came to market. This March 14, 829 new properties were listed by realtors in the greater Toronto area. Although only 1.4 percent higher than the 14,618 that came to market in 2013, it represents the first year over year increase that the market has witnessed in a number of months. One month does not create a trend, but it may be that sellers sitting on the metaphorical real estate fence are coming to market in order to capitalize on the surging average resale prices.

In March the average resale price came in at $557,684, a record for Toronto, surpassing the previous record for a single month achieved only last month. February’s average sale price came in at $552,885. March’s average sale price was almost 8 percent higher than the average sale price achieved in March 2013. Increases were consistent across all housing types. Detached homes in Toronto increased by 6.8 percent, semi- detached by 8.7 percent, townhouses by 7.7 percent , and condominium apartments by 5.1 percent.

Central Toronto remains the most expensive place to live in the greater Toronto area. The average price of a detached home in March exceeded $1,400,000. Semi –detached homes are equally expensive, averaging more than $800,000 for a typical semi. The least expensive area to live in Toronto is now the west end. The average price of properties came in at $587,980, $21,000 less than east end properties. East end properties however remain the hottest real estate commodity in Toronto. All east end properties sold in only 10 days, with most of these sales taking place in Riverdale, Leslieville, and the Beaches. Not only did these properties sell quickly, but on average they sold for 109 percent of their asking price. This is an unprecedented pace for sales. The overall market, including the 905 region saw all properties sold in a startling 21 days, 3 days faster than sales took place in 2013.

Condominium apartment sales continue to lag as compared to free-hold sales, although the pace of sales in that market sector is also accelerating. In February condominium apartment sales took 34 days to sell. This pace was consistent with the pace of sales over the last year. In March all condominium apartment sales were achieved in a mere 29 days, the first time that the 30 day barrier has been broken. Given the fact that inventories in this sector are not increasing dramatically, it can be anticipated that over the short term condominiums apartment sales will continue to accelerate. In March 2,941 new condominium apartment listings came to market. Last March 2,850 new listing became available. Heading into April 4325 listings will be available for sale, only 5 more than in April 2013. It is interesting to note that condominium apartment sales now represents 45 percent of all sales that take place in the city of Toronto.

Looking forward April should, subject to available inventories, total close to 10,000 property sales. Last April the Toronto Real Estate Bard reported 9,535 sales. There are many buyers attempting to take advantage of five year interest rates that are less than 3 percent, and lenders are eagerly attempting to loan them money. However, with average sales prices beginning to move towards $600,000, an increase in mortgage interest rates maybe the trigger that will slow sales. Since there is no indication of a rate increase, there is no apparent end to the Seller’s market place we have been experiencing since the spring of 2013.

Collingwood Real Estate Market Update – April 2014

The numbers released by the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) for the Georgian Triangle real estate market for the month of April reveal several interesting trends which, at least on their face, are not entirely consistent. The first is that the market has not entirely recovered from the brutal winter that we have just endured, resulting in a potential lag to the spring selling season which often experiences a surge of activity at this time of year accompanying the thaw. As discussed in earlier reports, the area has been plagued by a shortage of inventory which is only just starting to correct itself. That, mixed with the delayed spring, has contributed to fewer properties changing hands. The interesting twist to this scenario is that it does not appear to have affected the higher end market which, potentially due to increasingly positive economic reports, is actually churning out a sterling performance, significantly outperforming the rest of the market and counter balancing the reduction in overall unit sales.

While consistent with sales trends established so far this year, April’s numbers continue to trail those from last year, however, the trajectory appears to be in a positive direction with the negative year over year differential diminishing. More specifically, 196 properties were sold in April compared to 211 in the same month last year, marking a 7% decrease in unit sales. Year to date figures remain 11% behind last year with a total of 549 properties changing hands compared to 617 last year by this time. As indicated, however, higher end sales are more robust with the declines being, for the most part, reserved to properties priced below $350,000. In fact sales increased in all price categories above that threshold with the single exception of those in the $700-799,999 in which 3 properties sold as compared to 4 in April, 2013. As a result, despite the fact that unit sales were down by 7% this April, total dollar volume was actually up by 7% year over year, though year to date numbers still trailed by 2%.

As indicated, a scarcity of listings appears to have had a depressive effect upon sales, but this may be resolving itself and pointing to an improvement in conditions for the remainder of the quarter. New listings increased somewhat over last year with 720 properties coming onto the market compared to 706 last April, a 2% rise. Year to date listings, however, remain 8% behind last year with only 2085 new listings so far as compared to 2267 in 2013. Inventory therefore continues to be tight, with SGBAR reporting 2133 active listings at the time it published its figures, almost 6% fewer than last year when the Board reported 2226 active listings at this time. That said, this number is still a significant improvement over March when month end figures for active listings dipped below 1900.

Prices continue to rise, with the year to date average residential sale price coming in at $357,662, a 7.7% increase over last year’s average price at this time of $332,046. The upward trajectory in prices appears to be getting steeper with year over year average prices for the month of April coming in a full 10% ahead of last year for residential single family properties ($350,705 compared to $318,817). This will be something to watch, however, spread over a twelve month period, the year over year increase is still less than 5%, ($340,173 compared to $325,109).

Now that spring appears to be finally upon us, the hope is that choice will improve with more properties coming onto the market. As mentioned, most economic indicators continue to be positive, and bolstered by extremely competitive lending conditions and ongoing affordability in the region despite recent price increases, the fundamental ingredients appear to be in place for a solid performance by the Georgian Triangle real estate market moving into the next quarter and as the season heats up.

Toronto Real Estate Market Update – February 2014

The story of Toronto’s resale housing market is straight forward yet troublesome. There are simply not enough properties on the market to meet demand, and as a result, average prices continue to rise. These rapidly rising prices are beginning to cause observers of the Toronto resale market to express concern. The Deutsche Bank (the most skeptical), the International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development are amongst the various institutions expressing concern that Toronto’s resale market is overvalued. Various economists, including Nouriel Roubini and Ed Devlin of the bond giant Pacific Investment Management Company, have also stepped in, announcing that there is a lot of “frothiness” in the Toronto market. Except for the Deutsche Bank no one sees the market approaching bubble territory, but all are predicting a meaningful correction of some degree.

The data is beginning to speak quite eloquently. Notwithstanding an extreme winter month, February produced 5,731 resale transactions in the greater Toronto area, 2.1 percent more than the 5,613 reported sales in February 2013. In the City of Toronto condominium apartments accounted for half of all reported sales. Sales of other housing types were down as compared to February last year. They were down because there was an insufficient number of available detached, semi-detached and town houses to meet the demand. Detached were off by 8 percent, semi-detached by 11.8 percent, and townhouses by 8.8 percent. Condominium apartment sales were up by 9.6 percent. Of the 2136 reported sales for the City of Toronto, 1031 were condominium apartments.

Insufficient inventory continues to plague the market place. In February 10,897 properties became available for sale in the greater Toronto market place, 1 percent less than the 11,005 that became available last year. This decline, albeit moderate, contributed to the dwindling portfolio of the active listings. At the beginning of March there were 14,019 properties available for sale, more than 12 percent less than the 15,969 properties available to buyers in 2013. This lack of inventory is what is fueling the market, causing buyers to compete for favourable properties, and in the process driving average prices higher. At the beginning of March there were only 2.5 months of inventory for the entire greater Toronto area. A balanced market is not achieved until there are 4 months of inventory.

In January the average sale price for all properties sold came in at an alarming 9.2 percent. There was little abatement in rising average sale prices in February. February’s sales produced an average sale price of $ 553,193. This was 8.6 percent higher than last year’s average sale price of $ 509,396. By housing type, the increase in average sale prices was even more dramatic. Detached homes in the City of Toronto increased by 15.7 percent to $ 995,314; semi-detached moderately increased by 8 percent to $ 668,298, a small increase due to a lack of supply; and townhouses increased by a startling 20.7 percent to $ 545,043. The overall average was brought lower by condominium apartment sales, which only increased by 6 percent to $ 372,628. The most expensive neighbourhoods in Toronto are located in the central core. The average price for a detached property in Toronto’s central core came in at $ 1,425,485. Semi-detached houses on average cost $924,496 in the central core. Notwithstanding these lofty prices, all detached houses listed in February (on average) sold in just 19 days, and all semi-detached houses sold in an eye-popping 9 days, and for 109 percent of the asking price.

The most active trading area in Toronto is the eastern districts, and in particular for detached properties. Every district in the eastern trading area reported sales that met or exceeded the asking price, and in some cases by astonishing numbers. For example, sales in the eastern neighbourhoods known as Riverdale and Leslieville, saw the reported sale price exceed the asking price by 12 percent for all properties sold. Not only that, but all these properties took only 9 days to sell and be reported sold.

The slowest housing sector remains condominium apartments. Whereas all other property types were selling in 26 days or less, in the City of Toronto it took condominium apartments 34 days on average to sell. Reported sale prices for condominium apartments were not as frothy as the sale prices of other housing types. On average sale prices came in at only 98 percent of asking price. The average sale price for central Toronto condominium apartments (where most are located) was $ 419,663, a lot less than the average sale price of detached and semi-detached homes. Surprisingly there are still condominium apartments for sale (in the far eastern districts) that are priced at less than $ 200,000.

Looking forward little change can be expected in March. Expect more inventory shortages driving prices higher, while fraying the nerves of buyers desperate to buy properties while interest rates remain at historically low levels. Low mortgage interest rates continue to fuel the inventory short market. With five year rates available as low as 2.99 percent, how can a buyer not be motivated to purchase a property?

Collingwood Real Estate Market Update – February 2014

Extreme weather and the unseasonably frosty temperatures appear to have had an influence on the Georgian Triangle real estate market as well as so many other aspects of life in the area, and the province generally for that matter. Travel conditions were often hazardous, and many properties remained snowbound affecting access and the ability of potential buyers to fully appreciate the outdoor components and landscape of properties, to say nothing of the willingness of property hunters to venture out into the winter storms to view listings and keep their scheduled appointments. It is difficult to pinpoint and quantify the impact of any one factor on market trends, but property sales did continue to lag behind last year’s pace, which was compounded in part by a lower inventory of available properties.

With the publication of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (“SGBAR”) February MLS® Statistic Report for the Georgian Triangle month over month improvement in the market was evident with 122 sales as compared to 83 the month previous, consistent with seasonal trends. Despite narrowing the substantial negative differential of 27% year over year in the month of January, however, February sales still came in 3% behind last year for the month when 126 sales were reported. Year to date figures therefore remain 14% behind last year’s pace when 239 sales had been logged compared to only 205 this year.

Despite the “polar vortex”, sellers were able to bring out 428 new properties on the market which was 6% more than last year when only 405 new listings were recorded. That was not enough, however, to make up for last month’s shortfall in new supply. Year to date figures for new listings amounted to 918. That remains 6% behind last year’s numbers of 975 at this time. Nor did it make any dent in the limited inventory of properties for sale in the area which continues to trail 2013 figures. At the time of the creation of the SGBAR report there were 1851 active listings on the market which is 13% fewer than last year at this time when 2128 properties were recorded as being on the market. The lack of supply inevitably limits the choice available to potential buyers looking in the area which plays out as a further depressant to market activity and volume of sales.

Limited availability, however, also means buyers are fighting over fewer properties and that tends to put upward pressure on prices. Year to date, the average residential sale price has gone up over 8% coming in at $391,311 compared to $361,487 at the end of February 2013. The year over year comparison of the average sale price for single family residential properties for the month of February is even more significant coming in a whopping 15% higher than last year’s figures for the month, breaking the $400,000 mark at $404,588 compared to $352,100 last year. Measured over a longer twelve month period the annual increase is a more sustainable 3.5% ($335,421 compared to $323,846). Whether the surge in average sale price recorded in February is an anomaly explained by the particular composition of properties sold in the month with a higher concentration of high end sales, or is a broader phenomenon of recovering prices due to basic supply and demand forces remains to be seen, but certainly affordability will be adversely affected if these sorts of price increases continue at the pace recorded this month.

Generally speaking, the market remains on firm ground despite the deep freeze. Moreover, interest rates show no sign of any significant uptick within the foreseeable future, moderating the negative influence of rising prices on affordability. While signs of general economic recovery persist, continuing sluggishness in job and income growth remain sticking points to a broader more robust economic picture with lasting traction and qualitatively transformative benefits to the real estate market.