Collingwood Real Estate Market Update – November 2017

The Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) comprises two distinct markets. This report summarizes the monthly statistics for the SGBAR Western Region. The SGBAR trading area also includes the Eastern Region of Southern Georgian Bay due to an amalgamation of the Midland Real Estate Board and the Georgian Triangle Association Of REALTORS® in 2014.

Collingwood Real Estate Market Update – August 2017

The Southern Georgian Bay Association Of REALTORS® (SGBAR) comprises two distinct markets. This report summarizes the monthly statistics for the SGBAR Western Region. The SGBAR trading area also includes the Eastern Region of Southern Georgian Bay due to an amalgamation of the Midland Real Estate Board and the Georgian Triangle Association Of REALTORS® in 2014.

Collingwood Real Estate Market Update – December 2015

This report summarizes the monthly stats for the Western Region of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR). For clarity, the SGBAR trading area also includes the Eastern Region of Southern Georgian Bay, due to an amalgamation of the Midland Real Estate Board and the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board in 2014. We are now known as Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS®. For this monthly report, our focus remains on the Western Region.

We saw 127 sales in December 2015 which is up 18% from the 108 sales reported in December 2014. The total number of sales for the year is 2386, showing a 15% increase from 2080 sales from the same time last year. The total sales dollar volume for December 2015 is $46,685,516 up 29% from $36,306,059 in December 2014. 

2015 has been a strong year for properties over $1.0M.  There have been 48 properties sold over $1.M which is a 23.1% increase over 2014. Of the 6 properties sold over $1.0M in December 2015, 3 properties were sold for over $1.5M.  Overall property types included waterfront, view properties, century homes and executive custom homes.

In previous reports we have noted that sales in the $500K to $799,999K showed the strongest growth in 2015 over 2014.  That price category ended the year as a close second in growth with 232 sales for the year compared to 177 for 2014, reflecting a 31.1% increase. Leading the way are sales in the $350K to $499,999K price range which showed a 31.4% increase with 460 sales for the year vs 350 for 2014. 

On the listing side of things, overall supply remained low. The number of active MLS® listings at the end of December was 1066 compared to 2288 for December 2014 which is a 47% reduction. There were 170 new listings in December 2015 vs 192 for December 2014. The total number of listings for the year was 4347 vs 5129 for 2014, which represents a decline of 15%.

The monthly Sales to Listing Ratio for December 2015 is 74.71% which makes a clear statement that we continued to experience a Seller’s Market.  The Sales to Listing Ratio for 2015 is 54.89% up from 40.55% in 2014.

The number of months of inventory is an important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. Based on average monthly number of sales throughout 2015 and listings for December 2015, we currently have 5.3 months of supply. 6 months of supply is considered the benchmark for a balanced market. Less than 6 months of supply favors the Seller because there are fewer choices for the Buyer. More than 6 months favors the Buyer and leads to lower prices.

Expired listings continued to decline.   There were 206 expired listings in December 2015 vs 251 in December 2014, representing an 18% decline.  The total number of expired listings for 2015 was 1687 vs 2415 at the end of 2014, marking a 30.1% decrease in expired listings 2015 over 2014.

As 2015 ended, we can say with all certainty that it has been a strong market for Sellers. Total dollar volume for the year increased month over month throughout the year with a tight supply of listings. And, even though the mild weather conditions in December prevented the ski hills from opening, the Southern Georgian Bay area was bustling and preparing for what is shaping up to be a strong 2016.

Collingwood Real Estate Market Update

After a brief pause in August which registered steady but not breathtaking sales, the Georgian Triangle real estate market appears to have rallied to the pace-setting groove to which it has apparently become accustomed this season, recording more sales for the month of September than any year since 2005. Some of these sales may have been spurred by the recent increase in fixed term borrowing rates and the prospect of further tightening in the lending regime, prompting some buyers to get off the fence and commit to purchasing. But rather than being a temporary and anomalous blip September’s numbers appear to be part of a broader phenomenon attributable to the Georgian Triangle real estate market being on firm ground and benefitting from the ongoing comparative value, attractiveness and affordability of property available for sale in the area. September’s results therefore build upon this year’s strong performance to date, suggesting that the Georgian Triangle is well positioned to move into the final quarter of 2013 with sustainable growth and healthy sales.

According to the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® (“GTAR”) MLS® Statistic Report for September, 203 properties were sold logging a 28% increase over the 158 sales recorded in September of last year, and 15% more than the 176 sold in September 2011. While the surge in property sales was particularly concentrated in the $100-149,999, $250-349,999 and $600-699,999 ranges the strength of the market was generally felt across the board. In fact sales figures for this September were either better or equal to those for September of last year in every price category but one ($240-249,999). This month’s numbers bring year to date sales to 1644, 8% ahead of last year at this time when 1517 were recorded, and almost 16% ahead of the year previous when there were 1410 sales by the end of September. Total dollar volume for the month increased at an even higher level beating out last year’s performance by 35%, and updated year to date figures to reflect a 10% bump over last year.

New listings were up by 3% with 545 properties coming onto the market in September compared to 529 last year, bringing year to date figures to 5168, 3% behind last year’s total of 5316 at this time. With the disproportionately robust sales pace, however, inventory was down 3.5% from last year with only 2388 active listings recorded at the time that GTAR’s report was created, compared to 2476 last September, and even fewer than the 2501 active listings recorded at this time two years ago.

Not surprisingly, with sales outstripping supply, the average residential sales price year to date is almost 5.5% higher than last year coming in at $332,619 compared to $315,436 last year. The average sale price for single family residential properties for the month of September was $332,830, 3.5% more than the $321,501 average sale price last September. Measured over a twelve month period, the average sale price for this property type is up 6% year over year ($334,529 compared to $315,334) highlighting the steady price increases that have been racked up over the last year.

All in all prospects are good for a healthy fall market. Comparatively speaking, the Georgian Triangle continues to be well placed to weather changing economic conditions, including some variation in the lending environment. Given the tight market and fundamentals which support an optimistic forecast for property sales in the Georgian Triangle as we move into the final quarter of 2013, sellers contemplating putting their properties on the market would be well advised to do so, keeping in mind of course the old adage that pricing should reflect value in the property.

Prepared by Richard Stewart, VP and Legal Counsel Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage

Collingwood Real Estate Market Update FALL 2012

With the release of the real estate statistics by the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® (“GTAR”) for the month of September, it would seem “fall” is definitely the operative word for all indicators as they relate to the housing market in the Georgian Triangle. While in no way remarkable or dramatic, the performance of real estate in the area appears to be consistent with what the industry and commentators are calling for generally for the rest of the year and into 2013 as sales and prices cool and moderate but do not veer into significant correction territory. Rather with the healthy pace of sales established to date, this year is expected to end on a comparatively healthy and positive note when measured against the previous years’ performance, but 2012 may well already have its best months of activity behind it, with the rest of the year looking potentially a little lacklustre in comparison.

September racked up 159 sales, a 10% decline from the 176 recorded in September of 2011 and 10 fewer than the same month two years previous. As set out above, however, year to date sales remain 8% ahead of last year at this time with a total of 1520 properties changing hands compared to 1410 last year at this time. Total dollar volume reveals more of the same, only more so, with numbers coming in 14% behind last September’s total, though year to date figures remain 6% ahead of last year due to the robust market experienced in the Georgian Triangle this year up to this point.

Listings too were down significantly from last year with only 529 new properties coming onto the market. This is 19% fewer than the 650 new listings which came out last year in September, resulting in a tighter market with fewer active listings recorded (2476 compared to 2501 last year at this time). As a result the sales to listing ratio is actually higher this September than last coming in at 30.06 compared to 27.08 one year ago. Year to date 5316 new properties have come onto the MLS® system, 1% more than the 5252 listings recorded last year at this time.

Prices continue to stagnate in negative territory, continuing a trend established in previous months despite the healthy pace of sales. The average sale price in September for single family residential property came in at $319,643, 11% less than one year ago when the average sale price for the same category of properties was $359,611. Measured over a twelve month period the negative differential shrinks to 3% with the latest sale price averaging over that period coming in at $315,086 compared to $326,048 for the same period the year previous. Year to date the average residential sale price is 3.7% less than it was last year at this time coming in at $315,284 compared to $327,556.

As adverted to in earlier reports, commentators are calling for  a moderating real estate market as we move towards the end of this year and into the next as lending regimes tighten in response to national regulatory initiatives to address increasing household debt loads and a perceived overheated and overvalued real estate market. As further indicated in previous reports, the Georgian Triangle has in large part avoided many of these problems, however, no market is immune to broader economic forces, and thus is inevitably caught up at least to some extent with the trends and influences experienced elsewhere.  It should be noted, however, that the net result of these competing economic and regulatory forces is difficult to measure. While Europe continues to stagger under the economic burden of its financial crisis, the American housing market is finally showing real signs of life and contributing to consumer confidence in the United States which may well be extending to the broader economic climate, leading some to be more optimistic regarding real economic recovery south of the border.  This in turn is a positive factor in assessing the future prospects for our own economy and the domestic real estate market both nationally and in the Georgian Triangle. Interesting times lie ahead but at this point with so many variables at play both at home and abroad it is difficult to be definitive as to what the market holds until some of these forces play themselves out.

Prepared by: Richard Stewart, VP and Legal Counsel Chestnut Park properties in the Collingwood area